Monday, July 23, 2018

military ai ban = void ban

Recent headlines on banning AI from military use are reminiscent of 1968 Non Proliferation Treaty [1] - an elegant document that have not prevented score of countries such as India, Pakistan, Israel or North Korea to develop nuclear weapons.

Today we hear about "public pledge" [2] to not develop military applicable AI. Some call for total ban. But just how effective or even moral is such ban? For it to be effective, it must be adhered to by all capable parties. For instance nuclear development require large facilities visible from space, large groups of scientists and engineers and takes decades to complete. Such massive efforts are impossible without a central government. Due to the scale and duration of the program there is time for politicians to intervene and negotiate.

Not so much with the military AI capability. It is completely asymmetrical. I would estimate a group of 4 software engineers, 2 electrical engineers and 2 mechanical engineers to be able to produce killings machines on a mass scale.

Several publications have appeared over the years [3] [4] linking engineering degrees with terrorism. It is an easy correlation, but at the heart of it is the gentle learning curve to very powerful technologies.

For instance, a computer vision neural network in combination with Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) and some military payload (whether it is a rifle, an explosive, a gas or a biological agent) will likely satisfy wide spectrum of applications to destabilize the society, such as political assassinations or targeting ethnic groups.

It is obvious that rogue killing drones are a matter of years, if not months. As a society we must understand that there is no easy or cheap solution to the proliferation of the killing machines. Banning can restrain official law enforcement/military from obtaining such capability, impacting their ability to react to rogue/terrorist technologies. In other words - with the ban in effect, it will be front-line officers fighting the rogue robots in the streets of our cities.

It is likely that surveillance could be a short-term tool to boost the security. However in the long run, it is the development of the "good" military/police AI that could restore the balance.

Cheers!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons

[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/elon-musk-killer-robot-artificial-intelligence-pledge-military-drone-a8453611.html


[3] https://science.slashdot.org/story/15/11/25/1326242/engineers-nine-times-more-likely-than-expected-to-become-terrorists



[4] https://news.slashdot.org/story/09/12/30/1318240/why-do-so-many-terrorists-have-engineering-degrees